The dictatorship in Iran has opted to commit suicide. It’s true that the inevitable outcome of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s disastrous and most likely irreversible course of action will take some time to manifest. The BBC, like a pre-AI machine that cannot learn from fresh data, will keep babbling on about Iran’s ability to exercise “strategic patience” and the dangers of Israel “dragging” the US into a regional conflict.
However, it appears that the Iranian theocracy has reached a dead end. Tehran is more and more likely to face either a bloody regime change as the revolution is devoured by its progeny, or a Soviet-style collapse amid a regional conflict it cannot afford, unless Israel offers it a lifeline.
By striking Israel directly from its own territory, Iran has started a brinkmanship war that it will never be able to win. There are others who argue that Israel ripped up the script when an attack in Syria resulted in the murder of an Iranian general and damaged parts of Tehran’s “consulate.” Still, anyone with a sound mind can already see that Jerusalem has drawn new red lines.
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Israel is aware that it must take action in response to the Iranian attack or risk losing money. It also knows that Tehran is going to step up coordinated acts of assault from Syria in the east and Hezbollah in Lebanon in the north, maybe soon with nuclear weapons. And Israel may have concluded that it is now or never, given the West’s murmurs that a pivot to Asia is imminent.
In the event of a regional conflict, it can currently rely on American assistance; however, in a few years, this may not be the case. Put differently, Jerusalem is not going to back down.
Although a regional conflict would put Israel to the test, it would also destroy Iran because Tehran cannot afford to fight its rival. In order to get the billions required to finance its nuclear program and sustain Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, it has already implemented staggering tax increases and disastrous currency devaluations.
Iran may have reached a tipping point in its position where it is unable to raise expenditures to accommodate demands for military expansion without effectively becoming bankrupt or leading an economic collapse that could spark a popular uprising.
But it also doesn’t seem possible that Tehran can back down without suffering a severe loss of face. It would undoubtedly lose all credibility with the younger Islamists who support the dictatorship. It would be difficult for Khamenei to go back to his previous tactic of focusing their bellicose energy on fighting a home battle against the rebels.
Given the theocracy’s internal strife, it is not implausible that those who oppose it would try to take advantage of the regime’s brief vulnerability to launch an insurrection. The leaders of the 1979 revolution may be eliminated, branded as incompetent and mad by one side and defeated regardless of who won the next power battle. Why in the world has Khamenei’s inner circle decided to take this action? Has the regime lost its mind? It’s possible that Khamenei, the second-longest serving leader in the Middle East, has lost his sense of reason.
Proponents of the nuclear agreement with Iran foolishly promoted the idea that the Supreme Leader is a “pragmatist” and a “tactician.” A growing body of evidence is coming to the contrary conclusion.
Like with Putin, Khamenei’s broad sense of destiny has eluded Western commentators, who find it difficult to distinguish it from apocalypticism.
It is said that, in contrast to his predecessor Ayatollah Khomenei, who feared becoming corrupted by French luxury while living in exile, Ayatollah Khamenei is obsessed with the supposed vices of Western civilization. His favorite books are reportedly The Grapes of Wrath and Les Misérables. Additionally, it is alleged that he translated into Persian Sayyid Qutb’s “clash of civilizations” pamphlets, which are credited with inspiring Osama bin Laden. He eats up works that expose the ugly underbelly of civilization.
It is also possible that Khamenei’s deadly messianism went unnoticed. He is to Lenin what Stalin was to his predecessor, Khomenei. Claiming to be immensely driven and incredibly insecure, he has attempted to establish a celebrity cult around himself. Following the brief rise to power of rival reformist cleric Mohammed Khatami, a hardline loyalist faction has grown while moderates have been eliminated.
Has Khamenei’s grandiose dreams turned into pure lunacy? His word vomits on television, directed at the “evil Zionist regime” or American “arrogance,” are so formulaic and circular that, akin to Soviet apparatchik speeches, they can be read from top to bottom or bottom to top, potentially creating the appearance of stability and unchanging truth in a chaotic society. Although he is said to lead a simple lifestyle, his staff feeds from garbage, and he is thought to spend his time rattling around in the Shah’s renovated palaces. His latest declaration that God talks via him aroused eyebrows.
Refusing to wear a headscarf has become a potent symbol of resistance in a nation where 60% of the population lives in poverty, suggesting that his strategy has changed from religious populism to survival. The objective appears to have shifted from persuading Iranians to remain committed to the revolutionary cause to fortifying the allegiance of a limited group of devoted followers who can shield him from overthrow. Naturally, this camp is most likely the one that is adamantly opposed to peacekeeping, having radicalized to the point that it is unable to weigh costs and benefits or consider geopolitical realities.
This sickness of the dictatorship is affecting the entire country. Black gold and pathological self-deception are the two main greases used in theocratic machinery today. Clergymen give men one-hour weddings to prostitutes, and before becoming married, young ladies frequently have hymenoplasties.
All this may seem like pointless minutiae, but the government may not be able to pull itself out of the lethal trap that its radicalism has cast it in, even if it wanted to, having conjured up a virtual world in which depravity is modesty, black is white, and Iran can defeat the Little Satan. At this critical point, displaying moderation would run the risk of dismantling the complex web of lies that keeps the system intact.
This creates a grave geopolitical scenario. As if this were just a game of chicken, world leaders may very well demand quiet. However, the frightening truth is that Iran might have gone insane.
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